The software companies that provide the modeling . ( 2 earthquake occurrence and magnitude relationship has been modeled with All the parameters required to describe the seismic hazard are not considered in this study. The mean and variance of Poisson distribution are equal to the parameter . N Since the likelihood functions value is multiplied by 2, ignoring the second component, the model with the minimum AIC is the one with the highest value of the likelihood function. These models are. One would like to be able to interpret the return period in probabilistic models. i In order to check the distribution of the transformed variable, first of all Kolmogorov Smirnov test is applied. y t ) as the SEL-475. I Earthquake Hazards 101 - the Basics | U.S. Geological Survey x The Durbin Watson test statistics is calculated using, D ss spectral response (0.2 s) fa site amplification factor (0.2 s) . acceptable levels of protection against severe low-probability earthquakes. 1 Example:What is the annual probability of exceedance of the ground motion that has a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years? S187-S208.In general, someone using the code is expected either to get the geologic site condition from the local county officials or to have a geotechnical engineer visit the site. 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive Reston, VA 20192, Region 2: South Atlantic-Gulf (Includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands), Region 12: Pacific Islands (American Samoa, Hawaii, Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands), See acceleration in the Earthquake Glossary, USGS spectral response maps and their relationship with seismic design forces in building codes, p. 297. 2 1 "The EPA and EPV thus obtained are related to peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity but are not necessarily the same as or even proportional to peak acceleration and velocity. , Solving for r2*, and letting T1=50 and T2=500,r2* = r1*(500/50) = .0021(500) = 1.05.Take half this value = 0.525. r2 = 1.05/(1.525) = 0.69.Stop now. The best model is the one that provides the minimum AIC and BIC (Fabozzi, Focardi, Rachev, Arshanapalli, & Markus, 2014) . V is the estimated variance function for the distribution concerned. Given that the return period of an event is 100 years. How we talk about flooding probabilities The terms AEP (Annual Exceedance Probability) and ARI (Average Recurrence Interval) describe the probability of a flow of a certain size occurring in any river or stream. 1 10 Comparison of the last entry in each table allows us to see that ground motion values having a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years should be approximately the same as those having 10% probability of being exceeded in 250 years: The annual exceedance probabilities differ by about 4%.

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